Open AccessCoupling Disease-Progress-Curve and Time-of-Infection Functions for Predicting Yield Loss of Crops
Author(s) -
L. V. Madden,
G. Hughes,
Michael E. Irwin
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
phytopathology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.264
H-Index - 131
eISSN - 1943-7684
pISSN - 0031-949X
DOI - 10.1094/phyto.2000.90.8.788
Subject(s) - population , biology , yield (engineering) , incidence (geometry) , logistic function , statistics , disease , plant disease , exponential function , mathematics , demography , medicine , microbiology and biotechnology , mathematical analysis , sociology , materials science , metallurgy , geometry
A general approach was developed to predict the yield loss of crops in relation to infection by systemic diseases. The approach was based on two premises: (i) disease incidence in a population of plants over time can be described by a nonlinear disease progress model, such as the logistic or monomolecular; and (ii) yield of a plant is a function of time of infection (t) that can be represented by the (negative) exponential or similar model (ζ(t)). Yield loss of a population of plants on a proportional scale (L) can be written as the product of the proportion of the plant population newly infected during a very short time interval (X′(t)dt) and ζ(t), integrated over the time duration of the epidemic. L in the model can be expressed in relation to directly interpretable parameters: maximum per-plant yield loss (α, typically occurring at t = 0); the decline in per-plant loss as time of infection is delayed (γ; units of time -1 ); and the parameters that characterize disease progress over time, namely, initial disease incidence (X 0 ), rate of disease increase (r; units of time -1 ), and maximum (or asymptotic) value of disease incidence (K). Based on the model formulation, L ranges from αX 0 to αK and increases with increasing X 0 , r, K, α, and γ -1 . The exact effects of these parameters on L were determined with numerical solutions of the model. The model was expanded to predict L when there was spatial heterogeneity in disease incidence among sites within a field and when maximum per-plant yield loss occurred at a time other than the beginning of the epidemic (t > 0). However, the latter two situations had a major impact on L only at high values of r. The modeling approach was demonstrated by analyzing data on soybean yield loss in relation to infection by Soybean mosaic virus, a member of the genus Potyvirus. Based on model solutions, strategies to reduce or minimize yield losses from a given disease can be evaluated.