Predicting the Probability of Landowner Participation in Conservation Assistance Programs: A Case Study of the Northern Cumberland Plateau of Tennessee

Financial incentive programs offer one means of encouraging landowners to manage forests in the face of increasing development pressures. Using data collected in a 2005 survey by the University of Tennessee's Human Dimensions Lab of 1,462 woodland landowners on the Tennessee Northern Cumberland Plateau (Cumberland, Fentress, Morgan, and Scott counties), models were developed to predict landowner enrollment in such programs. The probability of landowner enrollment was calculated using logistic regression. Results reveal that a significant positive relationship exists between amount of land owned and conservation aid program enrollment. Also, there is a positive relationship between receiving information from government agencies or foresters and conservation aid program enrollment. Increasing enrollment in conservation aid programs will depend on targeting landowners with information from government agencies and providing opportunities to talk to a forester. More research on landowner demographics is necessary to create models that more accurately predict probability of landowner enrollment in conservation aid programs.