The impact of lower strength alcohol products on alcohol purchases: ARIMA analyses based on 4 million purchases by 69 803 households, 2015–2019

Background Lowering the strength of alcohol products could lead to less alcohol being bought and drunk. In its prevention White Paper, the UK Government aims to promote a significant increase in the availability of alcohol-free and low-alcohol products by 2025. Methods Through descriptive analysis and ARIMA modelling of >4 million alcohol purchases from 69 803 British households, we study the potential impact of lower strength alcohol products in reducing household purchases of grams of alcohol over 2015–2019. Households are divided into predominantly beer, wine or spirits purchasers. Results Over 5 years, there were decreases in purchases of grams of alcohol within beer amongst beer-purchasing households and increases in purchases of grams of alcohol within wine and spirits amongst, respectively, wine- and spirits-purchasing households. Almost all the changes were due to beer-purchasing households buying less regular strength beer, and wine and spirits-purchasing households buying, respectively, more regular strength wine and spirits, rather than increases in purchases of no- and low-alcohol products. Conclusions In general, lower strength alcohol products have not contributed to British households buying fewer grams of alcohol over the 5-year follow-up period during 2015–2019.