Black Lives Matter protests and COVID-19 cases: relationship in two databases

Background The coincidence of Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests with the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA has raised concerns about the safety of mass gatherings for political causes. This study examines two databases to probe any correlation between protests and increases of COVID-19 case rates afterward. Methods A BLM protest aggregator and a county-level COVID-19 database were crosswalked, matching the city that the protest occurred in with the county and its case rates at 0, 1, 2 and 3 weeks after the index protest, and was compared with a control county in the same state with the nearest match of population size and case rate at Week 0. Results In the 22 days after the killing of George Floyd, there were 326 counties participating in 868 protests, attended by an estimated 757 077 protestors. The median case rate at Week 3 was 0.0049 in protest counties versus 0.0041 in control counties, which was found to be statistically significant. Regression analysis found that each individual protestor contributed to the case rate by 7.65 × 10−9, which was not statistically significant. Conclusion Although the increase was statistically significant, it was very small in magnitude and likely due to limitations of significantly different population sizes in comparators.