The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration | Zendy

Jonathan Portes | Zendy; Giuseppe Forte | Zendy

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The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration

Author(s) -

Jonathan Portes,

Giuseppe Forte

Publication year - 2017

Publication title -

oxford review of economic policy

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.948

H-Index - 85

eISSN - 1460-2121

pISSN - 0266-903X

DOI - 10.1093/oxrep/grx008

Subject(s) - brexit , economics , per capita , deindustrialization , computable general equilibrium , demographic economics , labour economics , international economics , macroeconomics , economy , european union , population , demography , sociology

We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature. We find that Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector.

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