362. A Modified Early Warning Score Predicts Decompensation in COVID-19 Patients

Background The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) results in severe illness in a significant proportion of patients, necessitating a way to discern which patients will become critically ill and which will not. In one large case series, 5.0% of patients required an intensive care unit (ICU) and 1.4% died. Several models have been developed to assess decompensating patients. However, research examining their applicability to COVID-19 patients is limited. An accurate predictive model for patients at risk of decompensation is critical for health systems to optimally triage emergencies, care for patients, and allocate resources. Methods An early warning score (EWS) algorithm created within a large academic medical center, with methodology previously described, was applied to COVID-19 patients admitted to this institution. 122 COVID-19 patients were included. A decompensation event was defined as inpatient mortality or an unanticipated transfer to an ICU from an intermediate medical ward. The EWS was calculated at 12-hour and 24-hour intervals. Results Of 122 patients admitted with COVID-19, 28 had a decompensation event, yielding an event rate of 23.0%. 8 patients died, 13 transferred to the ICU, and 6 both transferred to the ICU and died. Decompensation within 12 and 24 hours were predicted with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.850 and 0.817, respectively. Using a three-tiered risk model, use of the customized EWS score for patients identified as high risk of decompensation had a positive predictive value of 44.4% and 11.1% and specificity of 99.3% and 99.6% and 12- and 24-hour intervals. Amongst medium-risk patients, the score had a specificity of 85.0% and 85.4%, respectively. Conclusion This EWS allows for prediction of decompensation, defined as transfer to an ICU or death, in COVID-19 patients with excellent specificity and a high positive predictive value. Clinically, implementation of this score can help to identify patients before they decompensate in order to triage at time of presentation and allocate step-down beds, ICU beds, and treatments such as remdesivir. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures