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The potential value increase of individual trees is an important factor in planning effective forest management strategies. Similar to other investments, trees with high potential value increase are retained and allowed to grow, and those with relatively low potential value increase are harvested so that the proceeds may earn a higher rate of return elsewhere. Tree grade is used to assess the quality and value of wood within a tree; thus, projecting tree grade is an integral part of estimating potential value increase. This study measured the accuracy of projected tree grades over a period of 12-15 years for 588 black cherry, 404 northern red oak, 167 red maple, 191 white and chestnut oaks, and 450 yellow-poplar sawtimber trees in both thinned and unthinned stands. Projected grade was based on surface defects and percent volume deductions for sweep, crook, and rot at the time of the projection with the assumption that the threshold dbh for the highest possible grade would be reached in the future. This approach allows the forest manager to make grade projections based on what is visible and measurable on the tree, even if the tree is currently too small to qualify for higher grades.

Accuracy of Tree Grade Projections for Five Appalachian Hardwood Species