Development and validation of a prognostic model for non-lung cancer death in elderly patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer

This study sought to develop and validate a prognostic model for non-lung cancer death (NLCD) in elderly patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). Patients aged ≥65 diagnosed with NSCLC (Tis-4N0M0), tumor diameter ≤5 cm and SBRT between 1998 and 2015 were retrospectively registered from two independent institutions. One institution was used for model development (arm D, 353 patients) and the other for validation (arm V, 401 patients). To identify risk factors for NLCD, multiple regression analysis on age, sex, performance status (PS), body mass index (BMI), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), tumor diameter, histology and T-stage was performed on arm D. A score calculated using the regression coefficient was assigned to each factor and three risk groups were defined based on total score. Scores of 1.0 (BMI ≤18.4), 1.5 (age ≥ 5), 1.5 (PS ≥2), 2.5 (CCI 1 or 2) and 3 (CCI ≥3) were assigned, and risk groups were designated as low (total ≤ 3), intermediate (3.5 or 4) and high (≥4.5). The cumulative incidences of NLCD at 5 years in the low, intermediate and high-risk groups were 6.8, 23 and 40% in arm D, and 23, 19 and 44% in arm V, respectively. The AUC index at 5 years was 0.705 (arm D) and 0.632 (arm V). The proposed scoring system showed usefulness in predicting a high risk of NLCD in elderly patients treated with SBRT for NSCLC.