Using a Coproduction Approach to Map Future Forest Retention Likelihood in the Southeastern United States

Forestlands in the Southern United States provide important ecological and socioeconomic services that are under increasing pressure from development and other stressors. We used a coproduction approach with 50+ stakeholders to create a qualitative, spatially explicit Forest Retention Index to provide a gradient of future forest retention likelihood on presently forested lands. An estimated 17.7 million acres are at high risk of forest loss by 2060. These losses are largely driven by urbanization, but sea-level rise plays a key role in some coastal areas. Approximately 59 percent of southern forest is projected to be retained with High or Very High likelihood but is unevenly distributed among southern states. Approximately 8 percent of highly biodiverse forest is at high risk of land-use conversion. This tool provides a collaborative, transparent, and defensible mapping product that can aid in identification of key areas where retaining forest is critical to maintaining ecological and socioeconomic integrity.