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To plan an appropriate public health response to the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic requires that estimates of HCV incidence and prevalence, and projections of the long-term sequelae of infection, are as accurate as possible. In this paper, mathematical models are used to synthesize data on the epidemiology and natural history of HCV in Australia to estimate HCV incidence and prevalence in Australia to end 2001, and project future trends in the long-term sequelae of HCV infection.

Modelling hepatitis C virus incidence, prevalence and long-term sequelae in Australia, 2001