From pup production to quotas: current status of harp seals in the Greenland Sea

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have been harvested for centuries in the North Atlantic. Estimating abundance and monitoring changes in population size are critical for the management of the species. In March 2012, the harp seal pup production was estimated from aerial photographic surveys over the whelping areas. A total area of 305 km was photographed and 6034 pups were counted on the photos. From this the total pup production estimatewas 89 590 ( s.e. 1⁄4 12 310, CV 1⁄4 13.7%). The status of the stockwas subsequently assessed by fitting a populationmodel to the independent pup production estimate, the historical catch data, and the historical reproduction data. The 2013 total abundance (including pups) was estimated to be 627 410 (95% CI 1⁄4 470 540–784 280) harp seals. We demonstrate how the model is used in assessment when exploring the effect of various catch scenarios on future predictions.