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The western horse mackerel stock covers a large area of the Northeast Atlantic and is characterized by the sporadic occurrence of strong year classes. The only fishery-independent data available for its assessments are the estimates of total annual egg production from triennial egg surveys. Horse mackerel are indeterminate spawners, so a direct conversion of total annual egg production to spawning-stock biomass using prespawning-season estimates of fecundity is not viable. There is also evidence that potential fecundity per kg spawning female increases with fish weight. A linked separable– ADAPT VPA (SAD) model was developed that combines data on total catch, catch-at-age, and total annual egg production with data on potential and realized fecundity to provide population estimates for western horse mackerel. The model accounts for potential fecundity as a function of fish weight and for the development of a targeted fishery on the strong 1982 year class. Simulations confirm that the SAD model is able to reproduce population estimates without bias under a range of scenarios, except where there is a trend in realized fecundity. This underscores the need for improved information on realized fecundity, or alternatively the need to develop management plans that are robust to this source of uncertainty.

ices journal of marine science

A linked separable–ADAPT VPA assessment model for western horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), accounting for realized fecundity as a function of fish weight