A linked separable–ADAPT VPA assessment model for western horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), accounting for realized fecundity as a function of fish weight

The western horse mackerel stock covers a large area of the Northeast Atlantic and is characterized by the sporadic occurrence of strong year classes. The only fishery-independent data available for its assessments are the estimates of total annual egg production from triennial egg surveys. Horse mackerel are indeterminate spawners, so a direct conversion of total annual egg production to spawning-stock biomass using prespawning-season estimates of fecundity is not viable. There is also evidence that potential fecundity per kg spawning female increases with fish weight. A linked separable– ADAPT VPA (SAD) model was developed that combines data on total catch, catch-at-age, and total annual egg production with data on potential and realized fecundity to provide population estimates for western horse mackerel. The model accounts for potential fecundity as a function of fish weight and for the development of a targeted fishery on the strong 1982 year class. Simulations confirm that the SAD model is able to reproduce population estimates without bias under a range of scenarios, except where there is a trend in realized fecundity. This underscores the need for improved information on realized fecundity, or alternatively the need to develop management plans that are robust to this source of uncertainty.