Regulating a complex adaptive system via its wasp-waist: grappling with ecosystem-based management of the New England herring fishery

Bakun, A., Babcock, E. A., and Santora, C. 2009. Regulating a complex adaptive system via its wasp-waist: grappling with ecosystem-based management of the New England herring fishery. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1768–1775. We use the New England herring fishery as an example of the unresolved scientific issues pertinent to ecosystem-based management of forage-fish fisheries. The biomass of herring off New England is currently well above maximum sustainable yield (BMSY), leading to pressure for expanded harvests. Associated concerns include: the maintenance of sufficiently abundant forage to meet the current needs of marine mammals and seabirds while supporting the rebuilding of overfished groundfish resources; the preservation of the service functions of a healthy population of pelagic zooplanktivorous fish to prevent possible outbreaks of pests, or hypoxia events; and the limitation of unintended bycatch of marine mammals, seabirds, and juvenile stages of groundfish. Perhaps a self-enhancing feedback loop, involving predation by herring on the early life stages of their groundfish predators, might result in regime shifts that could not be easily reversed. A plausible outcome of these ideas is a dichotomy in management choice between (i) promoting an ecosystem dominated by valuable groundfish resources and (ii) promoting the current ecosystem that features a large herring resource associated with abundant and energy-rich forage for marine mammals, seabirds, and continued high productivity of valuable shellfish resources.