Short-term stock assessment of Loligo gahi at the Falkland Islands: sequential use of stochastic biomass projection and stock depletion models

Roa-Ureta, R. and Arkhipkin, A. I. 2007. Short-term stock assessment of Loligo gahi at the Falkland Islands: sequential use of stochastic biomass projection and stock depletion models – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64, 3–17. Two short-term stock assessment models are combined to examine the pre-season, in-season, and post-season dynamics of the Loligo gahi fishery off the Falkland Islands over four consecutive fishing seasons. A stochastic biomass projection model (SBPM) projects a pre-season survey-based biomass estimate from the date of the survey to the start of the season. A stock depletion model (SDM) assesses in-season biomass from commercial daily catch-and-effort data. The SBPM projects the SDM biomass estimate at the end of the season to a post-season date of spawning. Combining the SBPM and the SDM helps to clarify the spatio-temporal functioning of the stock and to assess the comparability of survey- and fishery-based estimates of biomass. For the first 2005 season, projected length frequencies indicate two pulses of recruitment onto the fishing grounds. Survey-based projections of biomass were lower than equivalent fishery-based estimates. Over two surveys, the sex ratio was balanced, suggesting full recruitment of both sexes onto the fishing grounds, and the ratio of survey-projected to fishing-estimated biomass was constant. This constant is interpreted as a scaling factor between survey biomass and absolute biomass.