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Adaptive management of marine protected areas (MPAs) to determine whether they are meeting their intended goals requires predicting how soon those goals will be realized. Such predictions have been made for increases in fish abundance and biomass inside MPAs. However, projecting increases in fishery yield (“fishery spillover”) is more complex because it involves both how the fishery is managed and uncertainty in larval connectivity. We developed a two-patch, age-structured population model, based on a renewal equation approach, to project the initial timing of increase in fishery yield from larvae exported from a no-take MPA. Our results link our understanding of the predicted timing of increases in biomass (and thus reproduction) in MPAs with the time-lags associated with new recruits entering the fishery. We show that the time-lag between biomass peaking within the MPA and the increased fishery yield outside the MPA reaching its maximum depends, in a predictable way, on the age-dependent patterns of growth, natural mortality, and fishing mortality. We apply this analysis to 16 fishery species from the US Pacific coast; this difference ranged from 7 to 18 years. This model provides broadly applicable guidance for this important emerging aspect of fisheries management.

Projecting the timescale of initial increase in fishery yield after implementation of marine protected areas