INBREEDING ESTIMATION FROM POPULATION DATA: MODELS, PROCEDURES AND IMPLICATIONS

Four different estimation procedures for models of population structure are compared. The parameters of the models are shown to be equivalent and, in most cases, easily expressed in terms of the parameters Wright calls "F-statistics." We have estimated the parameters of each of these models with data on nine codominant allele pairs in 47 Yanomama villages, and we find that the different estimators for a given parameter all yield more or less equivalent results. F-statistics are often equated to inbreeding coefficients that are defined as the probability of identity by descent from alleles taken to be unique in some founding population. However, we are led to infer from computer simulation and general historical considerations that all estimates from genotype frequencies greatly underestimate the inbreeding coefficient for alleles in the founding population of American Indians in the western hemisphere. We surmise that in the highly subdivided tribal populations which prevailed until the recent advent of civilization, the probability of identity by descent for homologous alleles was roughly 0.5. We consider some consequences of working with the customary, much lower, estimates—0.005 to 0.01—if, on the time scale of human evolution, these represent only a very recent departure from the inbreeding intensity that prevailed before civilization.