A Generalized Methodology for Developing Whole-Stand Survival Models

A large source of variability in yield predictions is due to estimation of future surviving trees per unit area. Previous whole-stand survival modeling efforts have concentrated on modeling the empirical survival curve. Modeling hazard functions, an approach to survival analysis commonly used in fields such as medicine and sociology, can be applicable to plantation survival estimation. We offer a generalized method for deriving whole-stand survival models that are capable of modeling complex underlying hazard functions. We use our knowledge of the empirical hazard function to limit our selection to appropriate functions. Integrating selected functions results in initial condition difference equations that, when fitted to our data, provide biologically reasonable whole-stand survival predictions and adequately represent the underlying hazard function. Our method is relatively easy to implement and can model a whole-stand survival curve with a complex underlying hazard function. FOR. SCI. 50(5):686–695.