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The education-fertility relationship is a central element of the models explaining the transition to sustained economic growth. In this paper, we use a three-stages least squares estimator to disentangle the causality direction of this relationship. Controlling for a wide array of socio-economic, cultural, and geographical determinants, our cliometric contribution on French counties during the nineteenth century corroborates the existence of a single negative causal link from fertility to education. We put forward the hypothesis that in France a decrease in fertility is strongly associated to greater schooling.

Behind the fertility–education nexus: what triggered the French development process?