Long-term exposure to malaria and violence in Africa*

This paper explores the existence of a link between the long-term exposure to malaria and the, frequency of civil conflicts in Africa. Using geographically disaggregated data at the level of grid cells the analysis provides empirical evidence for a hump-shaped relationship between the long run stability and force malaria transmission and the incidence of civil violence. In line with epidemiological predictions about the acquired immunity to malaria, cells that are characterized by intermediate malaria exposure exhibit higher conflict incidence than cells with very low or very high malaria exposure. We explore the role of the expansion of anti-malaria policies after 2005 in the context of the Roll Back Malaria programme. The results provide suggestive evidence that anti-malaria interventions reduced the incidence of civil violence, but only in areas where adults lack acquired immunity to malaria.