A risk model to predict 2-year survival after VATS lobectomy for non-small-cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES We sought to identify the risk factors associated with mortality post-video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy over a 2-year period. METHODS Analysis was performed using a sample from an institutionally maintained database. All lobectomies for non-small-cell lung cancer from April 2014 to March 2018 started with VATS approach and with a complete follow-up were included (n = 732). Several clinical variables were screened using the Cox univariate analysis for their association with 2-year survival. Those with a P-value <0.1 were included in a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS After multivariable analysis, the following variables showed significant association with 2-year survival: age >75 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.527, P = 0.043], carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity 2 (HR 1.518, P = 0.047), performance status >1 (HR 1.822, P = 0.032) and male gender (HR 2.700, P   3) 66%, 95% CI 57–74. CONCLUSION Our scoring system can serve as an adjunct to a clinician’s experience in risk-stratifying patients during multidisciplinary tumour board discussion and the shared decision-making process.