Use of Viral Load as a Surrogate Marker in Clinical Studies of Cytomegalovirus in Solid Organ Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Author(s) -
Yoichiro Natori,
Ali Alghamdi,
Mahmood Tazari,
Veronica Miller,
Shahid Husain,
Takashi Komatsu,
Paul Griffiths,
Per Ljungman,
Ani OrchanianCheff,
Deepali Kumar,
Atul Humar,
Rekha Abichandani,
Barbara D. Alexander,
Robin K. Avery,
Fausto Baldanti,
Susan Barnett,
Paul Baum,
M. Michelle Berrey,
Debra Birnkrant,
Emily A. Blumberg,
Michael Boeckh,
David Boutolleau,
Terry L. Bowlin,
Jennifer Brooks,
Roy F. Chemaly,
Sunwen Chou,
Gavin Cloherty,
William W. Cruikshank,
Lesia K. Dropulic,
Hermann Einsele,
Jay Erdman,
Gary A. Fahle,
Lynn Fallon,
Heather L. Gillis,
Dimitri Gonzalez,
Kurt C. Gunter,
Hans H. Hirsch,
Aimee Hodowanec,
Peter Hunt,
Filip Josephson,
Camille N. Kotton,
Philip R. Krause,
Frank Kuhr,
Christopher Lademacher,
Randall Lanier,
Tadd Lazarus,
John A. D. Leake,
Randi Y. Leavitt,
Sandra Nusinoff Lehrman,
Li Li,
Paula Isabelle Lodding,
Jens Lundgren,
Francisco Martínez-Murillo,
Howard Mayer,
Megan McCutcheon,
John E. McKin,
Thomas Mertens,
Kevin J. Modarress,
Johann Mols,
Sally Mossman,
Yoshihiko Murata,
David Murawski,
Jeffrey S. Murray,
Garrett Nichols,
Jules O’Rear,
Karl S. Peggs,
Andreas Pikis,
Mark N. Prichard,
Raymund R. Razonable,
Marcie L. Riches,
Jeff Roberts,
Wael Saber,
Chalom Sayada,
Mary Singer,
Thomas Stamminger,
Anna Wijatyk,
Yu Dong,
Bernhardt Zeiher
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
clinical infectious diseases
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.44
H-Index - 336
eISSN - 1537-6591
pISSN - 1058-4838
DOI - 10.1093/cid/cix793
Subject(s) - viremia , viral load , surrogate endpoint , medicine , clinical endpoint , transplantation , cytomegalovirus , asymptomatic , immunology , confidence interval , incidence (geometry) , odds ratio , disease , clinical trial , virology , viral disease , herpesviridae , virus , physics , optics
Symptomatic cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease has been the standard endpoint for clinical trials in organ transplant recipients. Viral load may be a more relevant endpoint due to low frequency of disease. We performed a meta-analysis and systematic review of the literature. We found several lines of evidence to support the validity of viral load as an appropriate surrogate end-point, including the following: (1) viral loads in CMV disease are significantly greater than in asymptomatic viremia (odds ratio, 9.3 95% confidence interval, 4.6-19.3); (2) kinetics of viral replication are strongly associated with progression to disease; (3) pooled incidence of CMV viremia and disease is significantly lower during prophylaxis compared with the full patient follow-up period (viremia incidence: 3.2% vs 34.3%; P < .001) (disease incidence: 1.1% vs 13.0%; P < .001); (4) treatment of viremia prevented disease; and (5) viral load decline correlated with symptom resolution. Based on the analysis, we conclude that CMV load is an appropriate surrogate endpoint for CMV trials in organ transplant recipients.
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