Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots | Zendy

Seth Blumberg | Zendy; Joaquín M. Prada | Zendy; Christine Tedijanto | Zendy; Michael Deiner | Zendy; William W Godwin | Zendy; Paul M. Emerson | Zendy; Pamela J. Hooper | Zendy; Anna Borlase | Zendy; T. Déirdre Hollingsworth | Zendy; Catherine E. Oldenburg | Zendy; Travis C. Porco | Zendy; Benjamin F. Arnold | Zendy; Thomas M. Lietman | Zendy

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Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots

Author(s) -

Seth Blumberg,

Joaquín M. Prada,

Christine Tedijanto,

Michael Deiner,

William W Godwin,

Paul M. Emerson,

Pamela J. Hooper,

Anna Borlase,

T. Déirdre Hollingsworth,

Catherine E. Oldenburg,

Travis C. Porco,

Benjamin F. Arnold,

Thomas M. Lietman

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

clinical infectious diseases

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 3.44

H-Index - 336

eISSN - 1537-6591

pISSN - 1058-4838

DOI - 10.1093/cid/ciab189

Subject(s) - trachoma , medicine , environmental health , psychological intervention , neglected tropical diseases , transmission (telecommunications) , public health interventions , hotspot (geology) , demography , public health , population , pathology , psychiatry , geophysics , geology , sociology , electrical engineering , engineering

Tremendous progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made. However, there are areas where the clinical indicator of disease, trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), remains prevalent. We quantify the progress that has been made, and forecast how TF prevalence will evolve with current interventions. We also determine the probability that a district is a transmission-hotspot based on its TF prevalence (ie, reproduction number greater than one).

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