TP9.2.10The risk and predictors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency laparotomy: A multicentre cohort study

Aims To evaluate the risk and predictors of postoperative mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency laparotomy. Methods In compliance with STROCSS guideline for observational studies, we conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study. All consecutive patients aged over 80 with acute abdominal pathology requiring emergency laparotomy between April 2014 and August 2019 were considered eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and the secondary outcome measures were in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. Statistical analyses included simple descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression analyses, and Kaplan–Meier survival statistics. Results A total of 523 octogenarians were eligible for inclusion. Emergency laparotomy in octogenarians was associated with 21.8% (95% CI 18.3-25.6%) 30-day postoperative mortality, 22.6% (95% CI 19.0-26.4%) in-hospital mortality, and 40.2% (95% CI 35.9-44.5%) 1-year mortality. Binary logistic regression analysis identified ASA status (OR: 2.49,95% CI 1.82-3.38,P<0.0001) and peritoneal contamination (OR: 2.00, 95% CI 1.30-3.08, P = 0.002) as predictors of 30-day postoperative mortality. The ASA status (OR: 1.92,95% CI 1.50-2.46,P<0.0001), peritoneal contamination (OR: 1.57,95% CI 1.07-2.48,P=0.020) and presence of malignancy (OR: 2.06,95% CI 1.36-3.10,P=0.001) were predictors of 1-year mortality. Log-rank test showed significant difference in postoperative survival rates among patients with different ASA status (P < 0.0001) and between patients with and without peritoneal contamination (P = 0.0011). Conclusions Emergency laparotomies in patients older than 80 years with ASA status more than 3 in the presence of peritoneal contamination carries a high risk of immediate postoperative and 1-year mortality. There is a need to incorporate modern prognosticators into the available preoperative mortality risk assessment tools.