TP7.2.17 Are there any predictable trends in the pattern of two week referrals for suspected gastrointestinal cancers?

Aims Patients with suspected cancer are referred to secondary care on the “two week wait” pathway. Investigation and management of these patients is resource intensive and puts a significant strain on services. We aim to determine if there are predictable trends in quantity of referrals or cancer detection rates (conversion rates) for suspected upper and lower gastrointestinal cancers. Identifying such trends could guide future resource allocation and provision of services. Methods Two week wait referrals to upper and lower gastrointestinal clinics between 2015 and 2019 were included. The number of referrals and conversion rates were analysed on monthly, quarterly and annual basis. Results Upper GI total referrals: 1094 in 2015 vs 1357 in 2019. Lower GI total referrals: 1827 in 2015 vs. 3278 in 2019. Upper GI conversion rates: 8.8% in 2015 vs. 8.36% in 2019. Lower GI conversion rates: 6.47% in 2015 vs. 4.07% in 2019. There were no identifiable significant trends in referral numbers or conversion rates when analysed on a monthly and quarterly basis. Conclusions The number of two week wait referrals for suspected cancers has shown a sustained year on year increase. Conversion rates for the time period have remained somewhat static and in some cases decreased. Our data shows no evidence of any spikes or troughs in demand related to the time of year. Should demand continue to rise at the current rate then alternate modes of assessment such as telephone assessment clinic or a straight to test approach may become more widespread.