SP4.1.4 Stay at home, protect the NHS, Save lives? The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on acute surgical services

Aims Several centres described a ‘lockdown effect’: a reduction in emergency surgical admissions during national lockdown (23/03/20-01/06/20). The extent and reproducibility of this is unclear. We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency general surgical activity in a district general hospital. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients admitted under general surgery and urology between 01/01/2017-31/12/2020 using coding data. Unpaired t-tests were used to compare the total monthly admissions, admissions by diagnosis and monthly operations performed between the ‘first wave’ (April-May 2020) and ‘average’ (all months 2017-2019), and between the ‘second wave’ (November-December 2020) and average. Results Overall emergency admissions in 2020 were reduced compared to the mean 2017-2019 (4498 vs 5037). Monthly admissions were significantly reduced in the first wave compared to 2017-2019 (mean monthly admissions=284.5 vs 419.8; p < 0.001) with the greatest reduction in patients with non-specific abdominal pain (mean=58 vs 109; p = <0.001). A significant reduction in monthly admissions with pancreatitis (mean=8.0 vs 14.6; p = 0.010) and diverticulitis (mean=10.5 vs 18.8; p = 0.028) were also observed. This effect was less apparent during the second wave (mean total admissions=384.5 vs 419.8; p = 0.249). Monthly emergency operations were reduced in both the first wave compared to average (68 vs 101.9; p = 0.007) and the second wave (74.5 vs 101.9; p = 0.025). Conclusions We found strong evidence of a ‘lockdown effect’ in our centre during the first wave. The cause is unclear and likely to be multifactorial. Further research is needed to evaluate whether surgical patients came to harm as a result.