EP.TU.4Performance at Medical School predicts success in the Intercollegiate Membership of the Royal College of Surgery (MRCS) examination

Aims Identifying predictors of success in post-graduate examinations can help guide the career choices of medical students and may aid early identification of trainees requiring extra support to progress in specialty training. We assessed whether performance at medical school as quantified by the Educational Performance Measurement (EPM) and scores from the Situational Judgement Test (SJT) used for selection into Foundation Training predicted success at the Membership of the Royal College of Surgeons (MRCS) examination. Methods We analysed data from the UKMED Database for UK graduates who had attempted MRCS Part A (n = 1,975) and Part B n = 630) between 2013-2017. Univariate analysis examined the relationship between performance and the likelihood of passing MRCS at first-attempt. Logistic regression identified independent predictors of MRCS success. Results For every additional EPM decile point gained the chances of passing MRCS at first attempt increased by 52% for Part A (odds ratio 1.52 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-1.60]) and 27% for Part B (1.27 [1.18-1.38]). For every point awarded for additional degrees in the EPM, candidates were 29% more likely to pass MRCS Part A first time (1.29 [1.12-1.48]). SJT score was not a statistically significant independent predictor of MRCS Part A or Part B success after adjusting for sociodemographic factors (P = 0.182 and P = 0.125 respectively). Conclusions This, the first study to investigate the relationship between medical school and success at a high stakes UK postgraduate surgical examination found that medical school performance deciles are the most significant measure of predicting later success in the MRCS.