Classifying short gene expression time-courses with Bayesian estimation of piecewise constant functions

Analyzing short time-courses is a frequent and relevant problem in molecular biology, as, for example, 90% of gene expression time-course experiments span at most nine time-points. The biological or clinical questions addressed are elucidating gene regulation by identification of co-expressed genes, predicting response to treatment in clinical, trial-like settings or classifying novel toxic compounds based on similarity of gene expression time-courses to those of known toxic compounds. The latter problem is characterized by irregular and infrequent sample times and a total lack of prior assumptions about the incoming query, which comes in stark contrast to clinical settings and requires to implicitly perform a local, gapped alignment of time series. The current state-of-the-art method (SCOW) uses a variant of dynamic time warping and models time series as higher order polynomials (splines).