Modelling Kiwifruit Budbreak as a Function of Temperature and Bud Interactions

This paper presents two models of budbreak on canes of 'Hayward' kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa). A conventional 'chill unit' (CU) type model is compared with an alternative 'loss of potential' (LOP) approach, which assumes that the number of buds developing in spring depends on climate and node position-dependent bud-to-bud interactions that vary in duration and intensity. Both models describe how temperature, and application of a dormancy-breaking chemical, determine the overall amount of budbreak for whole canes. However, the LOP model does so by describing patterns of budbreak along canes. To do this, the cumulative influence of distal neighbours is assumed to cause a progressive fall in the capacity for bud development over the autumn-winter period, an influence that gets stronger as temperature rises. The LOP model also assumes that the rate of decline varies along the cane, as a function of some inherent bud property. These two factors mean that buds towards the base of the cane break less often under the suppressive influence of distal neighbours, while low temperature ('chilling') increases budbreak by diminishing the intensity of suppression relative to bud development rate. Under this scenario, dormancy-breaking chemicals (such as hydrogen cyanamide, HC) enhance budbreak by diminishing the duration of suppression. Models were calibrated using daily temperature series and budbreak proportion data from a multi-year regional survey, and were then tested against independent data sets. Both models were run from a fixed start date until the time budbreak was almost complete, or until a standard date. The fitted models described 87 % of variation in amount of budbreak due to site, year, HC and node position effects in the original data set. Results suggest that the correlation between chilling and the amount of budbreak can be interpreted as a population-based phenomenon based on interaction among buds.