Incidence of Prehypertension and Hypertension in Rural India, 2012–2018: A Sex-Stratified Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND India is home to the largest number of hypertensive individuals, and factors responsible for the incidence of hypertension are poorly understood. This study examines predictors of transition to different stages of hypertension—incidence of hypertension, incidence of prehypertension, and incidence of prehypertension to hypertension. METHODS Population-based survey data from the Birbhum Population Project, located in West Bengal, India were used. A cohort of 8,977 individuals (male: 3,934, female: 5,043), participated in the 2012–13 survey, and were followed up for resurvey in 2017–18. The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee (JNC 7) guidelines were followed to define hypertension. Bivariate and multivariate Poisson regression analyses were conducted to attain the study objective. RESULTS The incidence of hypertension, prehypertension among males (7.9% and 45.3%, respectively) is higher than that among females (5.9% and 32.7%, respectively). However, the incidence of prehypertension to hypertension is lower among males (23.6%) than among females (33.6%). Among both sexes, with age, the incidence of hypertension, and incidence of prehypertension to hypertension appeared to increase, whereas incidence of prehypertension among females increased with age. Findings indicate a diverse gradient of socioeconomic, behavioral, and anthropometric characteristics influencing the incidence of different stages of hypertension. CONCLUSIONS With a focus on females and the richest individuals, this study proposes that an appropriate intervention be designed in keeping with the socioeconomic, behavioral gradient of incidence of different stages of hypertension. The role of anthropometric indicators in hypertension is proposed to be further studied for better population-based screening.