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Long-term follow-up evaluations of cervical screening approaches are limited in low-resource areas. This prospective study assessed the risk of future cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) associated with baseline human papillomavirus (HPV) and cytologic status. In rural China, 1,997 women were screened with 6 screening tests, including colposcopic evaluations, and underwent biopsies in 1999. In December 2005, 1,612 women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 or less at baseline were rescreened by visual inspection, liquid-based cytology, and HPV-DNA testing. All women underwent colposcopy at follow-up, with biopsies taken from women with visually apparent lesions or cytologic abnormalities. Twenty women developed incident CIN2+. The crude relative risk of CIN2+ for baseline HPV-positive women was 52 (95% confidence interval: 12.1, 222.5). The crude relative risk of CIN2+ was 167 (95% confidence interval: 21.9, 1,265) for baseline and follow-up repeatedly HPV-positive women compared with repeatedly HPV-negative women. Among 1,374 baseline HPV-negative women, 2 and no incident CIN2+ cases were detected in baseline cytologically normal and abnormal subgroups, respectively. Among 238 baseline HPV-positive women, 6 of 18 incident cases of CIN2+ developed in the cytologically normal group. This study demonstrates that a single oncogenic HPV-DNA test is more effective than cytology in predicting future CIN2+ status.

Human Papillomavirus Testing for Cervical Cancer Screening: Results From a 6-Year Prospective Study in Rural China