The association of weight change and all-cause mortality in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective there may be age-related differences in the impact of weight change on health. This study systematically reviewed the evidence on the relationship between weight change and all-cause mortality in adults aged 65 years and older. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched from inception to 11 June 2020, PROSPERO CRD 42019142268. We included observational studies reporting on the association between weight change and all-cause mortality in older community-dwelling adults. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios and scored based on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality guidelines. Results a total of 30 studies, including 1,219,279 participants with 69,255 deaths, demonstrated that weight loss was associated with a 59% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR): 1.59; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45–1.74; P < 0.001). Twenty-seven studies that reported outcomes for weight gain (1,210,116 participants with 65,481 deaths) indicated that weight gain was associated with a 10% increase in all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.17; P = 0.01). Four studies investigated weight fluctuation (2,283 events among 6,901 participants), which was associated with a 63% increased mortality risk (HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.28, 2.15). No evidence of publication bias was observed (all P > 0.05). Conclusion for community-dwelling older adults, weight changes (weight loss, gain or weight fluctuation) are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality risk relative to stable weight. Further research is needed to determine whether these associations vary depending upon initial weight, and whether or not the weight loss/gain was intentional.