Zero-one generation laws for finite simple groups

Let $G$ be a simple algebraic group over the algebraic closure of $GF(p)$ ($p$ prime), and let $G(q)$ denote a corresponding finite group of Lie type over $GF(q)$, where $q$ is a power of $p$. Let $X$ be an irreducible subvariety of $G^r$ for some $r\ge 2$. We prove a zero-one law for the probability that $G(q)$ is generated by a random $r$-tuple in $X(q) = X\cap G(q)^r$: the limit of this probability as $q$ increases (through values of $q$ for which $X$ is stable under the Frobenius morphism defining $G(q)$) is either 1 or 0. Indeed, to ensure that this limit is 1, one only needs $G(q)$ to be generated by an $r$-tuple in $X(q)$ for two sufficiently large values of $q$. We also prove a version of this result where the underlying characteristic is allowed to vary. In our main application, we apply these results to the case where $r=2$ and the irreducible subvariety $X = C\times D$, a product of two conjugacy classes of elements of finite order in $G$. This leads to new results on random $(2,3)$-generation of finite simple groups $G(q)$ of exceptional Lie type: provided $G(q)$ is not a Suzuki group, we show that the probability that a random involution and a random element of order 3 generate $G(q)$ tends to $1$ as $q \rightarrow \infty$. Combining this with previous results for classical groups, this shows that finite simple groups (apart from Suzuki groups and $PSp_4(q)$) are randomly $(2,3)$-generated. Our tools include algebraic geometry, representation theory of algebraic groups, and character theory of finite groups of Lie type.