Mathematical fitting model and analysis in describing Covid-19 viruses outbreak in Indonesia | Zendy

Fadilah Ilahi | Zendy; Mohamad Andri Ibrahim | Zendy; Dudang Gojali | Zendy; Asyiqah Nur Akmaliyah | Zendy; D Mashudi | Zendy

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Mathematical fitting model and analysis in describing Covid-19 viruses outbreak in Indonesia

Author(s) -

Fadilah Ilahi,

Mohamad Andri Ibrahim,

Dudang Gojali,

Asyiqah Nur Akmaliyah,

D Mashudi

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

journal of physics conference series

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.21

H-Index - 85

eISSN - 1742-6596

pISSN - 1742-6588

DOI - 10.1088/1742-6596/1869/1/012137

Subject(s) - outbreak , basic reproduction number , covid-19 , transmission (telecommunications) , population , geography , construct (python library) , susceptible individual , virology , statistics , demography , computer science , biology , mathematics , sociology , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , telecommunications , pathology , programming language

The outbreak of novel coronavirus at the end of 2019 (covid-19) has become a global concern due to its fast transmission from human-to-human. It is first time discovered in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China. In this research, the author tries to construct epidemiological model that consist of six subpopulations such as susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), isolated (Q), recovered (R), and dead (D) population. Those compartments will be analyzed to get basic reproduction number (R 0 ). The data used in this research is secondary data that obtained from the recent study and various news report related to the covid-19 outbreak. Fitting method will be carried out to describe the virus outbreak and see the trend of the future condition based on the real observation data and the mathematical function that has been determined. The expected result of this research is that the mathematical fitting model and its analysis helping the epidemiologist and health practitioner to determine the right treatment to stop the outbreak so that the society could be back to virgin population.

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