Open AccessGlobal and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies
Author(s) -
Robert E. Evenson
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.96.11.5921
Subject(s) - agriculture , commodity , food prices , food processing , agricultural biotechnology , consumption (sociology) , economics , natural resource economics , food security , investment (military) , climate change , agricultural economics , developing country , production (economics) , food systems , business , international economics , economic growth , market economy , geography , macroeconomics , biology , food science , political science , ecology , social science , sociology , politics , law , archaeology
The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a “global food crisis,” as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, “local food crisis,” as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.