Open AccessDynamics of technological evolution: Random walk model for the research enterprise
Author(s) -
Elliott W. Montroll,
Kurt E. Shuler
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.76.12.6030
Subject(s) - dimensionless quantity , random walk , constant (computer programming) , aerodynamics , scale (ratio) , statistical physics , space (punctuation) , computer science , mathematics , physics , mechanics , statistics , quantum mechanics , programming language , operating system
Technological evolution is a consequence of a sequence of replacements. The development of a new technology generally follows from model testing of the basic ideas on a small scale. Traditional technologies such as aerodynamics and naval architecture involved feasibility experiments on systems characterized by only one or two dimensionless constants. Technologies of the “future” such as magnetically confined fusion depend upon many coupled dimensionless constants. Research and development is modeled and analyzed in terms of random walks in appropriate dimensionless constant space.