Open AccessHow immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology
Author(s) -
Naomi R. Waterlow,
Edwin van Leeuwen,
Nicholas G. Davies,
Stefan Flasche,
Rosalind M Eggo
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.2108395118
Subject(s) - pandemic , covid-19 , transmission (telecommunications) , immunity , epidemiology , coronavirus , betacoronavirus , virology , basic reproduction number , immunology , biology , medicine , demography , environmental health , immune system , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , population , pathology , outbreak , electrical engineering , engineering , sociology
Significance Cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) has been hypothesized to contribute to the relative sparing of children during the early phase of the pandemic. Testing this relies on understanding the prepandemic age distribution of recent HCoV infections, but little is known about their dynamics. Using England and Wales as a case study, we use a transmission model to estimate the duration of immunity to seasonal coronaviruses, and show how cross-protection could have affected the age distribution of susceptibility during the first wave, and could alter SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns over the coming decade.