Open AccessHistoric Yangtze flooding of 2020 tied to extreme Indian Ocean conditions
Author(s) -
ZhenQiang Zhou,
ShangPing Xie,
Renhe Zhang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.2022255118
Subject(s) - predictability , indian ocean dipole , climatology , rossby wave , flooding (psychology) , indian ocean , monsoon , oceanography , yangtze river , environmental science , argo , geography , geology , china , psychology , physics , archaeology , quantum mechanics , psychotherapist
Significance Summer rainfall along the Yangtze River in 2020 was the heaviest since 1961, with devastating socioeconomic impacts. While official forecasts based on tropical Pacific state failed, we show that dynamic models, when initialized with ocean observations globally, succeed in predicting the extreme rainfall. Slowly propagating oceanic Rossby waves in the South Indian Ocean are the source of predictability, which are in turn tied to the record-breaking Indian Ocean Dipole in late 2019. The identification of antecedent subsurface conditions of the Indian Ocean as a key predictor represents an important conceptual advance in Asian summer monsoon dynamics, helping improve disaster preparation that saves lives and properties.