Open AccessA coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change
Author(s) -
Jim Yoon,
Christian Klassert,
Philip Selby,
Thibaut Lachaut,
Stephen Knox,
Nicolas Avisse,
Julien Harou,
Amaury Tilmant,
Bernd Klauer,
Daanish Mustafa,
Katja Sigel,
Samer Talozi,
Erik Gawel,
Josué Medellín–Azuara,
Bushra Bataineh,
Hua Zhang,
Steven M. Gorelick
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.2020431118
Subject(s) - water security , population , per capita , water scarcity , food security , natural resource economics , water resources , freshwater ecosystem , geography , climate change , environmental resource management , economics , business , agriculture , environmental science , ecology , ecosystem , demography , archaeology , sociology , biology
Significance Jordan is facing an unfolding water crisis, exacerbated by climate change and conflict-induced refugee influxes. We present a freshwater security analysis for the country, enabled by an integrated systems model that combines simulation of Jordan’s natural and built water environment with thousands of representative human agents determining water allocation and use decisions. Our analysis points to severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in Jordan’s freshwater security. Without intervening measures, over 90% of Jordan’s low-income population will be experiencing critical water insecurity by the end of the century. To gain a foothold on its water future, Jordan must enact an ambitious portfolio of interventions that span supply- and demand-side measures, including large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water-sector reform.