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In PNAS, McDermott et al. (1) analyze a 2014–2016 central Pacific fishing surge, focusing on the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA) inside the Kiribati exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The authors incorrectly attribute the surge to the anticipated industrial fishing closure of PIPA and describe the phenomenon as a blue paradox (i.e., an unintended negative consequence of a conservation policy). However, a broader analysis demonstrates that this surge was unrelated to the closure of PIPA and was due to a strong El Nino event that created a fishing surge across multiple EEZs and high seas, not just PIPA (2).McDermott et al. (1) do not consider regional data that reveal confounding factors. Long-term catch … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: hanich{at}uow.edu.au. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure