Winter teleconnections can predict the ensuing summer European crop productivity

Climate change impact assessment on agricultural crop productivity is becoming an important research arena given the increasing yield losses due to the high frequency of droughts in recent years and the anticipated prevalence of extreme events in future climate scenarios (1⇓–3). It is said that by the middle of the 21st century, climate change probably will result in more frequent wheat crop failures across Europe (1). Most studies examine crop yield and physiology responses to externally forced climate change, particularly variations in temperature, precipitation, or atmospheric CO2 concentration. The impacts of internal climatic oscillations on crop productivity are often overlooked. Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are therefore inherently uncertain (2, 3). However, farmers expect the quantification of the impacts and forecasting ability ahead of cropping season to operationally plan potential management options …