Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation

Significance Research shows how the potential services from ecosystem conservation can be modeled, mapped, and valued; however, this integrative research has not been systematically applied to estimate the actual impacts of programs on the delivery of ecosystem services. We bridge this divide by showing how protected areas in Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand store carbon and deliver ecosystem services worth at least $5 billion. Impacts on carbon are associated with poverty exacerbation in some settings and with poverty reduction in others. We describe an agenda to improve conservation planning by (i ) studying impacts on other ecosystem services, (ii ) uncovering the mechanisms through which conservation programs affect human welfare, and (iii ) more comprehensively comparing costs and benefits of conservation impacts.