Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system | Zendy

Elmar Kriegler | Zendy; Jim W. Hall | Zendy; Hermann Held | Zendy; Richard Dawson | Zendy; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber | Zendy

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Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

Author(s) -

Elmar Kriegler,

Jim W. Hall,

Hermann Held,

Richard Dawson,

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Publication year - 2009

Publication title -

proceedings of the national academy of sciences

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011

H-Index - 771

eISSN - 1091-6490

pISSN - 0027-8424

DOI - 10.1073/pnas.0809117106

Subject(s) - climatology , climate change , global warming , amazon rainforest , environmental science , abrupt climate change , restructuring , meteorology , geography , economics , geology , effects of global warming , oceanography , ecology , biology , finance

Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2-4 degrees C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 degrees C) relative to year 2000 levels.

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