Open AccessHuman-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution
Author(s) -
Terry L. Root,
Dena P. MacMynowski,
Michael D. Mastrandrea,
Stephen H. Schneider
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
proceedings of the national academy of sciences of the united states of america
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.011
H-Index - 771
eISSN - 1091-6490
pISSN - 0027-8424
DOI - 10.1073/pnas.0502286102
Subject(s) - hadcm3 , climate change , environmental science , climatology , thermometer , general circulation model , global warming , ecology , global change , linkage (software) , atmospheric sciences , gcm transcription factors , biology , geology , thermodynamics , biochemistry , physics , gene
Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).