The United States should forego a damage-limitation capability against China

Bottom Lines • THE KEY STRATEGIC NUCLEAR CHOICE. Whether to attempt to preserve its damage-limitation capability against China is the key strategic nuclear choice facing the United States. The answer is much less clear-cut than when the United States faced the Soviet Union during the Cold War. • FEASIBILITY OF DAMAGE LIMITATION. Although technology has advanced significantly over the past three decades, future military competition between the U.S. and Chinese forces will favor large-scale nuclear retaliation over significant damage limitation. • BENEFITS AND RISKS OF A DAMAGE-LIMITATION CAPABILITY. The benefits provided by a modest damage-limitation capability would be small, because the United States can meet its most important regional deterrent requirements without one. In comparison, the risks, which include an increased probability of accidental and unauthorized Chinese attacks, as well as strained U.S.—China relations, would be large. • FOREGO DAMAGE LIMITATION. These twin findings—the poor prospect...