Marine capture fisheries production and intensity of rainfall: An application of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model

Indonesia is a maritime country that has a high production of fish. West Java is one of the provinces which accounted for a high fish production in Indonesia with total production is 8,316,607.377 tons in 2011. The fish production in West Java has a trend and seasonal components. The trend and seasonal components is influenced by climate change. One of interesting indicator of the climate change is the change in intensity of rainfall. The increasing intensity of rainfall would be increase fish production. The influence rainfall on fishing production can be formulated in a mathematical model using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling (ARDL). This method was applied because of the impact of the lag of independent variables and dependent variable that included in the model. The model informs how big the impact. The parameter estimation was conducted using ordinary least squares (OLS) and obtained adjusted R2 = 0.8265. The high fish productions in the previous period affect the decline in fish production i...