September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation | Zendy

Yizhe Zhan | Zendy; Roger Davies | Zendy

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September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation

Author(s) -

Yizhe Zhan,

Roger Davies

Publication year - 2017

Publication title -

aip conference proceedings

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Conference proceedings

eISSN - 1551-7616

pISSN - 0094-243X

DOI - 10.1063/1.4975531

Subject(s) - predictability , sea ice , environmental science , climatology , satellite , arctic , lag , meteorology , correlation coefficient , arctic ice pack , atmospheric sciences , atmosphere (unit) , sea surface temperature , geology , oceanography , geography , computer science , physics , statistics , mathematics , computer network , astronomy

A significant three-month lag correlation between June top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR) and the subsequent September sea-ice extent (SIE) is found within the Arctic, and the predictability of September SIE is examined by both satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficient between de-trended June RSR and September SIE reaches up to 0.88 for MISR, and the forecast skill of 0.36 using MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset is similar to or better than complex prediction models. Results confirm the particular importance of the early summer surface energy budget and help to explain the abrupt declines of September SIE in the past decade (2007, 2012, 2015).

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