Calculating inspector probability of detection using performance demonstration program pass rates

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has been working since the 1970’s to ensure that nondestructive testing performed on nuclear power plants in the United States will provide reasonable assurance of structural integrity of the nuclear power plant components. One tool used by the NRC has been the development and implementation of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section XI Appendix VIII[1] (Appendix VIII) blind testing requirements for ultrasonic procedures, equipment, and personnel. Some concerns have been raised, over the years, by the relatively low pass rates for the Appendix VIII qualification testing. The NRC staff has applied statistical tools and simulations to determine the expected probability of detection (POD) for ultrasonic examinations under ideal conditions based on the pass rates for the Appendix VIII qualification tests for the ultrasonic testing personnel. This work was primarily performed to answer three question...