Critical mass for the development of a new container port in Vlissingen

The economic importance of accommodating container transport and the increasing demand for container-handling capacity are major triggers for conventional ports to develop container terminals. The port of Vlissingen, located between Rotterdam and Antwerp, is aspiring to gain a position in deep-sea container handling. A relevant factor that greatly determines the potential of the port of Vlissingen is the critical mass of the container terminal handling operations to be developed by the port authority. In developing a full deep-sea terminal there is consensus about a critical mass of approximately one million TEU with possibilities to extend to at least two million TEU. In its role as a satellite port for Antwerp, a critical mass of 350 000 TEU could be sufficient. In attracting sufficiently large container flows to Vlissingen, the competitive strength of the port plays an important role. Our contribution in this article lies in the analysis of the optimal size of container port development. The competitive position of the proposed container port of Vlissingen is analysed by using economic research and forecasting methods, backcasting analysis, and analysis of the competitive position vis-a-vis Antwerp and Rotterdam.