Predictions for the frequency and orbital radii of massive extrasolar planets

We investigate the migration of massive extrasolar planets caused by gravitational interaction with a viscous protoplanetary disc. We show that a model in which planets form at 5 au at a constant rate, before migrating, leads to a predicted distribution of planets that is a steeply rising function of log( a ), where a is the orbital radius. Between 1 and 3 au, the expected number of planets per logarithmic interval in a roughly doubles. We demonstrate that, once selection effects are accounted for, this is consistent with current data, and then extrapolate the observed planet fraction to masses and radii that are inaccessible to current observations. In total, approximately 15 per cent of stars targeted by existing radial velocity searches are predicted to possess planets with masses 0.3< M p  sin( i )<10 M J and radii 0.1< a <5 au . A third of these planets (around 5 per cent of the target stars) lie at the radii most amenable to detection via microlensing. A further 5–10 per cent of stars could have planets at radii of 5< a <8 au that have migrated outwards. We discuss the probability of forming a system (akin to the Solar system) in which significant radial migration of the most massive planet does not occur. Approximately 10–15 per cent of systems with a surviving massive planet are estimated to fall into this class. Finally, we note that a smaller fraction of low‐mass planets than high‐mass planets is expected to survive without being consumed by the star. The initial mass function for planets is thus predicted to rise more steeply towards small masses than the observed mass function.