Deformation and stress change associated with plate interaction at subduction zones: a kinematic modelling

The interseismic deformation associated with plate coupling at a subduction zone is commonly simulated by the steady‐slip model in which a reverse dip‐slip is imposed on the down‐dip extension of the locked plate interface, or by the backslip model in which a normal slip is imposed on the locked plate interface. It is found that these two models, although totally different in principle, produce similar patterns for the vertical deformation at a subduction zone. This suggests that it is almost impossible to distinguish between these two models by analysing only the interseismic vertical deformation observed at a subduction zone. The steady‐slip model cannot correctly predict the horizontal deformation associated with plate coupling at a subduction zone, a fact that is proved by both the numerical modelling in this study and the GPS (Global Positioning System) observations near the Nankai trough, southwest Japan. It is therefore inadequate to simulate the effect of the plate coupling at a subduction zone by the steady‐slip model. It is also revealed that the unphysical assumption inherent in the backslip model of imposing a normal slip on the locked plate interface makes it impossible to predict correctly the horizontal motion of the subducted plate and the stress change within the overthrust zone associated with the plate coupling during interseismic stages. If the analysis made in this work is proved to be correct, some of the previous studies on interpreting the interseismic deformation observed at several subduction zones based on these two models might need substantial revision. On the basis of the investigations on plate interaction at subduction zones made using the finite element method and the kinematic/mechanical conditions of the plate coupling implied by the present plate tectonics, a synthesized model is proposed to simulate the kinematic effect of the plate interaction during interseismic stages. A numerical analysis shows that the proposed model, designed to simulate the motion of a subducted slab, can correctly produce the deformation and the main pattern of stress concentration associated with plate coupling at a subduction zone. The validity of the synthesized model is examined and partially verified by analysing the horizontal deformation observed by GPS near the Nankai trough, southwest Japan.